Selling Plants in a Changing Market: Insights at the AIPH Industry Conference in Sydney

Nick Hutchinson, Chair of Greenlife Industry Australia, outlines industry collaboration with major retailer Bunnings.

Second in a three-part series, insights from the AIPH Horticultural Industry Conference on 10 March in Sydney. In this article, we show how shifting demand and retail power in Australia and the Netherlands are changing how plants are sold.

For growers, the challenge is no longer how to produce plants but how to sell them in an increasingly uncertain and transforming market.

In Australia, demand for plants remains above pre-COVID-19 levels, but it is no longer consistent, predictable, or evenly distributed. Consumer behaviour is shifting, retail channels are evolving, and in some cases, market power is becoming increasingly concentrated.

While these dynamics are particularly visible in the Australian market, the discussion at the Conference in Sydney reflected the challenges that are resonating globally across other production regions.

Demand is changing, not disappearing

In the $17 billion Australian market, one of the clearest messages from the session was that demand for plants has not declined, but it has changed.

Consumers are buying more selectively, influenced by cost-of-living pressures, changing lifestyles, and a lack of confidence in plant care. The issue is no longer access to plants, but engagement with them.

Elyse Allum of Hort Innovation presents the Plant Value Report, demonstrating the economic impact of plants in residential environments. Photo credit: Ludovic Vilbert, Inwardout Studio.

Initiatives such as the Plant Value Report, presented by Elyse Allum, Associate Marketing Manager at Hort Innovation, reflect a more deliberate, data-led approach to demand creation.

Rather than relying on general messaging about the benefits of plants, the industry is progressively using data to demonstrate value in ways that are directly relevant to consumers.

Developed in partnership with Domain Group, one of Australia’s leading digital property platforms, the report set out to quantify the impact of greenery in the housing market — an area where value had previously been widely assumed but rarely measured.

The findings were commercially significant. Homes with greenery achieved up to 17.4% higher sale prices, attracted more buyer interest, and in some cases sold faster.

This shifts how demand is built in the market. Instead of promoting plants as discretionary purchases, the industry is casting them as assets with measurable economic value, creating a clearer link between horticulture and consumer buying decisions.

Retail is becoming more complex

At the same time, the structure of plant retail is shifting.

Traditional garden centres are facing increasing pressure from online channels, convenience retail, and large-format operators. In some Australian markets, this is leading to fragmentation. In others, it results in concentration.

Mike Mehigan, CEO of Greenlife Industry New South Wales and ACT (GINA), which represents the nursery and garden industry across New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory, described how these pressures are already reshaping retail at ground level.

Having operated an independent garden centre for more than two decades, he has seen first-hand how the garden centre retail model has evolved; and, in some cases, become harder to sustain.

“We were forced to close,” he said, thinking about his own business after more than 20 years in operation.

His experience demonstrates a broader shift across the sector. Rising land values, changing consumer habits, and the expansion of large-format, convenience-led retail have altered the conditions under which independent garden centres operate.

Mike Mehigan highlights the growing role of digital platforms in shaping plant retail and consumer behaviour.

At the same time, consumer anticipations are being altered by digital behaviour. In Australia, 16.8% of retail transactions are now online, while 81% of consumers use digital channels to research purchases before visiting stores. Purchases made after 9 pm are also typically higher in value.

“Technology doesn’t replace the garden centre; it supercharges it,” Mehigan said.

Market power is reshaping grower relationships

If retail structures are evolving, access to those channels is also becoming more concentrated.

“Retail concentration isn’t unique to Australia,” said Nick Hutchinson, Chairman of Greenlife Industry Australia. “If you grow plants at scale somewhere in the world, you’re likely dealing with at least one very large customer.”

In Australia, that concentration is particularly visible. Bunnings operates more than 300 stores nationally and is estimated to account for up to 75% of the retail market for plants.

The scale of the sector helps explain the significance of this position. Australia’s production nursery industry generates around AUD 2.65 billion annually, supplying more than two billion plants and employing approximately 22,500 people. Within that system, the retail supply chain represents around 41% of total sales value.

When a single channel accounts for that proportion of revenue, its influence becomes systemic, driving commercial conditions across the sector.

Nick Hutchinson of Greenlife Industry Australia highlights the scale and systemic exposure of the Australian nursery sector. Source: GIA (presentation slide).

For many growers, that translates into a high level of dependency, with as much as 80–85% of their business tied to a single retail partner.

That dependency is not operating in isolation. As Hutchinson made clear, this conversation is taking place in a high-pressure operating environment. Around 90% of nurseries report rising input costs, while two-thirds cite biosecurity and severe weather as key risks. Insurance pressures are also increasing.

Against that backdrop, volatility in trading relationships compounds risk, making predictability a critical factor.

Hutchinson pointed to recurring concerns around limited volume commitments, reliance on non-binding forecasts, and lengthy pricing negotiations that can stretch from six to nine months. In a capital- and labour-intensive production sector, that level of uncertainty has direct consequences for investment, planning and long-term confidence.

A market that demands more structure

The commercial reality, then, is not simply one of changing demand but of growing asymmetry within the supply chain.

For Australian growers, the issue is no longer only how to meet market demand, but how to operate within trading relationships that are becoming more concentrated and less predictable.

As Hutchinson argued, the question is not whether concentration exists, but how it is managed. These conditions have also driven greater industry coordination in how growers engage with retail partners. That wider response, and the role of industry organisations in developing it, will be examined in the final advocacy article of this series on the Horticultural Industry Conference in Sydney.

A different pressure in Europe: defending demand

AIPH Vice-President Jack Goossens shares insights from the Plants & Flowers Foundation Holland on coordinated industry marketing and demand creation. Photo credit: Ludovic Vilbert, Inwardout Studio.

While the Australian discussion focused on market access and retail behaviour, the Dutch perspective introduced a different kind of pressure.

For Jack Goossens, AIPH Vice-President and interim Chair of the Plants and Flowers Foundation Holland, the challenge is not only to drive demand but also to sustain the sector’s public standing.

In the Netherlands, escalating scrutiny around sustainability, including energy use, crop protection, and environmental impact, is changing how plants are perceived by both consumers and regulators.

“The value is quite difficult to measure,” he said, referring to sector-wide promotional campaigns. “But the public image of our sector… that is much more important now.”

This points to a greater shift. In some markets, demand is no longer affected solely by availability or price, but also by how the industry is understood and perceived.

A more uncertain marketplace

Taken together, the discussions in Sydney point to a market environment that is becoming more complex and less predictable.

Demand remains, but it is more selective.
Retail access is evolving, but not always evenly distributed.
And in some cases, power is concentrated in ways that revise how growers operate.

For growers, this creates a new set of pressures — not only in how plants are produced, but in how they are positioned, priced and sold.

The challenge is no longer to meet demand, but to steer it.

More from the AIPH Horticultural Industry Conference

This article forms part of a three-part series exploring how global horticulture is responding to increasing pressure across production and markets. The final article will examine how industry advocacy and coordinated frameworks are evolving to support growers.