IATA anticipates growing cautiousness in the market for the new year to come  

 The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for October 2024 global air cargo markets showing continuing strong annual growth in demand.

“Air cargo markets continued their strong performance in October, with demand rising 9.8 per cent year-on-year and capacity up 5.9 per cent. Global air cargo yields (including surcharges) continue to rise, up 10.6 per cent on 2023 and 49 per cent on 2019 levels,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general.

While 2024 is shaping up to be a banner year for air cargo, it is crucial to exercise some caution in the new year that lies ahead. Walsh cites the incoming Trump Administration’s which announced its intention to impose significant tariffs on its top trading partners—Canada, China and Mexico. This decision has the potential to upend global supply chains and undermine consumer confidence. “The air cargo industry’s proven adaptability to rapidly evolving geopolitical and economic situations is likely to be tested as the Trump agenda unfolds,” said  Walsh.

Several factors in the operating environment should be noted:

• Year-on-year, industrial production rose 1.6 per cent in September while global goods trade increased 2.4 per cent for a sixth consecutive month of growth. The increase in trade is partly due to businesses stockpiling inventory ahead of potential disruptions, like the US port strike.
• Global manufacturing activity rebounded in October. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for global manufacturing output was above the 50-mark, indicating growth. However, the PMI for new export orders, remained below the 50-mark, suggesting ongoing uncertainty and weakness in global trade.
• US headline inflation, based on the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose by 0.17 percentage points to 2.58 per cent in October, ending a six-month decline. In the same month, the inflation rate in the EU increased by 0.24 percentage points to 2.33 per cent. China’s consumer inflation fell to 0.29% in October, sparking concerns of an economic slowdown.

October Regional Performance

Asia-Pacific airlines saw 13.4 per cent year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in October. Capacity increased by 9.3 per cent year-on-year.

North American carriers saw 9.5 per cent year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in October. Capacity increased by 5.8 per cent year-on-year.

European carriers saw 7.6 per cent year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in October. Capacity increased 3.9 per cent year-on-year.

Middle Eastern carriers saw 4.5 per cent year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in October. Capacity increased 0.8 per cent year-on-year.

Latin American carriers saw 18.5 per cent year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in October, the strongest growth among the regions. Capacity increased 5.8 per cent year-on-year.

African airlines saw 1.6 per cent year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in October, the slowest among regions. Capacity increased by 7.7 per cent year-on-year.

International routes experienced exceptional traffic levels for the fifth consecutive month with a 10.3 per cent year-on-year increase in October. Airlines are benefiting from rising e-commerce demand in the US and Europe amid ongoing capacity limits in ocean shipping.